UK Data
- During the week Halifax House Price Survey for May. Previous -1.3%m/m & -0.9%y/y
- Monday 9.30am BoE Mortgage Approvals for April. Previous 64.0k
- Monday 9.30am CIPS Manufacturing PMI for May. Previous 51.0 index
- Wednesday 12.01am Nationwide Consumer Confidence for May. Previous 70.0 index
- Wednesday 9.30am CIPS Services PMI for May. Previous 50.4 index
- Thursday 12.00pm BoE MPC Interest Rate Announcement
Sterling hit a 3-week high against the Euro last week, despite economic data having done nothing to allay fears over the UK’s economic outlook. The Nationwide house price index fell by its fastest monthly pace on record in May, dragging the annual rate of decline to 4.4%. That was the 7th consecutive monthly fall, a clear signal that the housing slump is gathering pace. Meanwhile, Sterling found some support after the CBI Quarterly Distributive Trades survey revealed British retail sales fell less sharply than expected in May. However, it was concerning to see both the reported and expected price balances rising to their highest levels since 1992. In a busy data calendar, this week’s highlight will be the BoE interest rate announcement where rates are expected to remain steady at 5.0%, given recent inflation developments.
US Data
- Monday 3.00pm ISM Manufacturing Survey for May. Previous 48.6 index
- Wednesday 1.15pm ADP Employment Survey for May. Previous 10k
- Wednesday 3.00pm ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey for May. Previous 50.9 index
- Thursday 12.45pm ECB Interest Rate Announcement, followed by news conference at 1.30pm
- Friday 1.30pm Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate for May. Previous -20k & 5.0%
The Dollar staged a rally against the Euro last week as a falling oil price and tame inflation data helped to support the US currency. The Dollar strengthened broadly on Thursday after US GDP rose at a faster pace than previously estimated and hawkish Federal Reserve comments boosted expectations for an interest rate hike later this year. Meanwhile a government report on Friday revealed US consumer spending rose in April while the core PCE price index, the Federal Reserves preferred measure of inflation, moderated. Friday’s non-farm payrolls data takes centre stage in the US this week, with the market looking for any signs of recovery in May, following four consecutive months of job losses.
EURO Data
- Monday 9.00am Manufacturing PMI for May. Previous 50.7 index
- Tuesday 10.00am Eurozone GDP (2nd Estimate) for Q1. Previous 0.7%q/q & 2.2%y/y
- Tuesday 10.00am PPI for April. Previous 0.7%m/m & 5.7%y/y
- Wednesday 9.00am Services PMI for May. Previous 52.0 index
- Wednesday 10.00am Retail Sales for April. Previous -0.4%m/m & -1.6%y/y
The Euro lost out to the Dollar and the Pound last week as the EU faced up to the familiar toxic mixture of soft yet inflationary data. The single currency weighed after figures showed the Eurozone current account recorded an unexpectedly large deficit of €15.3bn in March as a stronger Euro and softer international demand began to take its toll. The Euro extended losses after falling German retail sales and rising Eurozone inflation painted a worrying picture of the region’s economy. Eurozone consumer price inflation rose to 3.6%y/y in May from a previous 3.3%, matching the 16-year high set in March. Market attention now shifts to the ECB interest rate decision on Thursday, where Jean Claude Trichet is expected to maintain his previous hawkish rhetoric despite mounting evidence that the Eurozone economy may be faltering.
Interest rate outlook
| Country |
Current rate |
Last change |
Date of change |
Next meeting |
| UK (MPC) |
5.00% |
-25bps |
10/04/08 |
5th June |
| US (FED) |
2.00% |
-25bps |
30/04/08 |
25th June |
| EU (ECB) |
4.00% |
+25bps |
06/06/07 |
5th June |